Hawks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Can Heat Down Hawks Once More?

The Miami Heat play host to the Atlanta Hawks as slim 3-point favorites just two days after beating them by eight. Will history repeat itself? Read our NBA betting picks below to find out.

The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks wrap up a two-game set in South Beach on Monday, with Miami taking the first contest 117-109 as a 3-point home favorite Saturday.

The Heat and Hawks are sitting No. 7 and No. 8 in the Eastern Conference standings respectively, with Miami owning a 1.5-game cushion after the win on the weekend.

Atlanta is still getting used to new head coach Quin Synder, who’s trying to cure what is being reported as a poison culture for the club.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this Southeast Division showdown and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Heat on March 6.

Hawks vs Heat best odds

Atlanta+3.5-118o 227.5-115+120
Miami-1.5-116u 233.0-115-126

Hawks vs Heat picks and predictions

The Miami Heat snapped a two-game funk and picked up just their second win in six games with Saturday’s home victory over the Atlanta Hawks. In Miami’s defense, that recent schedule would be an uphill climb for any team.

The Heat faced the likes of the red-hot Knicks, the 76ers twice, Milwaukee, and Denver and crammed in two three-in-four challenges coming out of the All-Star break. That led to a 2-4 mark against the spread.

However, the return home for the past two games — as well as tonight’s tilt with Atlanta and an upcoming two-game stand with Cleveland — is just what the Heat need to get right before the playoff push.

Miami took a New York team playing the best basketball of anyone in the Association to the wire (lost on a last-second 3-pointer) on Friday and then showed a lot of character the next night by coming out strong and shutting down one of the best offensive attacks in the land in Saturday’s win.

Part of that defensive success was an uptick in offensive efficiency, with Miami getting in close for quality looks. The Heat hit over 60% on their 2-point tries Saturday and totaled 54 points in the paint, which left the Hawks to inbound on many possessions and play into Miami’s plodding game pace (28th).

That also allowed the Heat to get back on the defensive end and clog up Atlanta’s pick-and-roll heavy attack. The Hawks use the high screen on the ball carrier to free up space for its smaller guards more than any team in the league, but Miami checks those offenses to a 40% success rate and just 0.89 points per play.

Atlanta is still adjusting to a new coach and new systems while Snyder tinkers with his rotations to fit his game plan. All the while, the rumor mill swirls around star Trae Young, his future with the franchise, and his degrading relationship with his teammates.

Another big win for Miami feels like a jumping-off point for a team that could make waves in the East and run up the standings before the end of the regular season.

My best bet: Heat moneyline (-144 at Pinnacle)

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